What Stage Are We in The Bull Market
- AlgoTradeAlert
- Nov 26
- 5 min read
What Stage Are We in The Bull Market? So what really decides if it’s a bull or bear market? Only two things matter:
1. What the Fed is doing (still friendly or at least not hostile).
2. Do people think companies will earn more money in the coming years?
Everything else is noise.
Trying to sell because “something feels wrong” is the fastest way to miss the best years. The simplest rule that has made people the most money over decades is: stay invested. Don’t jump in and out. Just own great companies that are growing, have plenty of cash, and are selling into markets that are getting bigger.
The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run. Keep voting with your money by staying in the stock market. Time in the market beats timing the market—every single time.
Most people think the stock market goes up when the economy is already strong. That’s backwards. The market goes up first, because smart money is betting on tomorrow’s profits, not today’s headlines.
I’ve seen years where the economy was boring or even flat, but the stock market still gains 15-20% because investors believed companies would make more money in the future. That belief is what moves prices.
There’s a simple map that explains the whole thing. It has three stages:
Stage 1 (where we are right now):
The Fed prints money or keeps rates low → people suddenly have extra cash → they buy stocks and bonds → stock prices go up → everyone feels richer → some of that money finally goes into new factories, stores, and jobs. Stocks lead, the economy follows.
Stage 2: (2026-2028)
The good stuff shows up in the real world: more jobs, higher wages, companies running at full speed. Everything feels great and stocks keep climbing.
Stage 3 (not good for stocks):
The Fed has raised rates too much → stock and bond prices fall → people feel poorer → they stop spending → companies cut back → unemployment rises → bear market. Then the Fed panics, cuts rates, and we start Stage 1 all over again.
We haven’t been in Stage 3 for a couple of years now. We’re still in Stage 1. Even if the Fed just “pauses” and does nothing, we stay in the good stage for stocks.
As we approach the close of another remarkable year, we want to extend our sincere gratitude to our premium members for their continued trust and partnership. 2025 has been one of the most successful years in our history — a testament to the strength of our trading models, the resilience of our strategies, and the unwavering support of our community.
We would also like to recognize the exceptional work of our research and analytics team, whose innovation and discipline have driven consistent performance in an unpredictable market environment.
Looking ahead, we are confident that 2026 will be even stronger, as we continue to enhance our algorithms, expand market coverage, and deliver more actionable insights for our members.
Thank you for being part of the AlgoTradeAlert Team — your success remains our top priority.
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