Stock Market Update Friday December 15, 2023 NY Fed President Williams stated on CNBC, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." This seemed to conflict with Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference, causing a dip in the futures markets and a rise in the dollar. However, further scrutiny revealed Williams had marked several expected rate cuts in his 'dot plots' for next year, leading traders to dismiss his assertion as not serious."
Everyone is confused about what the FOMC will do next year. Expect the FOMC to backtrack on cutting rates, claiming data dependency. Lagging data makes it extremely difficult to figure out. Six rate cuts are currently priced into the stock market. If the FOMC doesn't cut rates, it will reflect in the charts and our algorithms. This will be one of the most crucial charts in 2024. We're adding the TLT ETF to our premium member chart list. This will help us identify if the FOMC will cut rates or not. (TLT UP) Yields will go down.
The Nasdaq 100 celebrated new highs, leading the day with a 50 basis points gain, pushing its year-to-date increase to 53.3%. However, the S&P 500 opted out of today's festivities, concluding with a slightly red finish.
Away From Stocks: The long bond stabilized at 4%, a slight retreat from yesterday's 4.03%, achieving its best close since July. Meanwhile, the short end paused its recent enthusiasm, bouncing up seven basis points to 4.44%. WTI crude maintained just under $72 a barrel, gold dipped to $2,019 per ounce, and the VIX remained below 13.