Stock Market Update Wednesday April 30, 2025

Stock Market Update Wednesday April 30, 2025 Market Resilience: Despite a rocky start with the S&P 500 initially dropping by more than 2%, a strong recovery late in the trading day resulted in the index's seventh straight day of gains. This impressive comeback meant that the S&P 500 finished April near its starting point, even after a month marked by significant market fluctuations driven by major news events and unexpected earnings reports.

Daily Moves:

• S&P 500 (SPX) +0.2%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) +0.1%

• Russell 2000 (IWM) -0.6%

Away From Stocks::The Treasury curve steepened in a mixed session. The 2-year yield fell five basis points to 3.60%, reflecting a bid for duration at the short end, while the 30-year inched up to 4.66%. Crude oil (WTI) extended its slide, settling near $58/bbl, while gold dipped below $3,300 as investors rotated out of havens. Bitcoin continued to consolidate around the $95,000 level, and the VIX climbed toward 25, suggesting a modest uptick in implied volatility.

Tomorrow Macro News:

• May 1, 9:45 AM – April Final S&P Manufacturing PMI:

  • Actual: 50.5

  • Forecast: 50.7

• May 1, 10:00 AM – April ISM Manufacturing PMI:

  • Actual: 48.0

  • Forecast: 49.0

End of The Month Free Premium Edition:

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced on CNBC that a bilateral trade accord has been finalized. However, the identity of the partner nation remains undisclosed pending formal ratification by its leadership. This represents a constructive milestone in ongoing trade negotiations and may signal improving diplomatic economic relations.

The White House has also outlined plans to introduce tariff harmonization measures for automakers, effectively eliminating the compounding effect of layered tariffs—particularly those involving steel, aluminum, and country-specific duties. In addition, the administration is weighing temporary tariff rebates to the automotive sector, offering short-term fiscal relief to bolster domestic production and maintain competitiveness.

An accompanying executive order reinforces this policy direction by prioritizing domestic manufacturing. Scott Besson, a senior administration official, reaffirmed the commitment to reshoring industrial capacity, underscoring a broader strategy of strategic decoupling and supply chain resilience. These measures collectively signal a moderation of trade barriers, contributing to improved market stability and investor confidence.

On the macroeconomic front, recent releases of key economic indicators such as the JOLTS report and consumer confidence index provide a mixed picture. While consumer sentiment fell modestly below expectations, one-year inflation expectations rose sharply. This anticipatory shift, even if not immediately substantiated by inflation data, may embolden firms to implement price increases, reinforcing inflationary pressures.

The JOLTS data, albeit lagged, showed a decline in job openings, now nearly aligned with the available labor force. This narrowing labor market gap has rattled markets, lifting the implied probability of a recession to 64%—just shy of the 68% high recorded on April 9. However, this risk premium remains data-dependent and may reverse with improving fundamentals.

Investors are closely watching Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could significantly impact short-term market direction. This week is pivotal, packed with high-impact economic releases.

From an asset allocation standpoint, market behavior suggests a potential bottoming process is underway. While investor sentiment remains broadly bearish, technical indicators show signs of stabilization. The S&P 500 has recently reclaimed critical support levels, rebounding from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 5,491—derived from the February high of 6,147 and the March low of 4,835. Following a brief pullback on “Tariff Liberation Day,” the index closed at 5,671 and has since recovered to within 2% of pre-decline levels, reflecting improving price momentum.

Equity-specific performance is also showing signs of rotation. Tesla, a bellwether for growth stocks, appears to have formed a technical double bottom. Following a strong earnings print, the stock has logged five consecutive days of gains, pointing to renewed institutional accumulation.

Notably, Tesla is not alone. Over 20 large-cap equities we track are exhibiting similar technical reversal patterns, suggesting a broader market reacceleration across high-beta names.

Meanwhile, homebuilders, typically strong performers during the October–April window, have underperformed in what is now considered the weakest seasonal stretch for the sector in years. This deviation from historical norms may reflect persistent interest rate sensitivity, affordability challenges, or waning housing demand elasticity.