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Stock Market Update Tuesday September 3, 2024

Stock Market Update Tuesday September 3, 2024 After the extended holiday, the stock market delivered a harsh reality check to shareholders. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 took significant hits, shedding 2% for the SPY ETF and 3% for the QQQ ETF, respectively, marking the worst single-day performance since the August 5th mini-crash.


Away From Stocks: The bond market remained relatively stable, with Treasury yields easing by three to seven basis points along the curve. Commodities weren't spared either—WTI crude plummeted 4%, settling at $70 per barrel, while gold edged down slightly to $2,492 per ounce. Bitcoin also experienced volatility, ending the session near $58,200. The VIX, often considered the market's fear gauge, surged by more than five points, closing near 21, signaling heightened market anxiety


NVIDIA ($NVDA) closed at $108 per share, witnessing a staggering $280 billion erosion in market capitalization today. This represents the largest single-day loss ever recorded by any publicly traded company, setting a new benchmark for value destruction in equity markets. Tomorrow's trading session will be crucial to observe whether NVIDIA stages a recovery or experiences further downside momentum.


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While August has come to a close showing its fourth straight month of gains, markets are also entering the seasonally difficult month of September.  September is off to a rocky start for stock markets. Risk-Off Move Ahead of Jobs Data? The ISM manufacturing PMI came in at a contractionary 47.2, below the expected 47.9, pushing Treasuries higher while equities dipped. Defensive sectors are leading equities as the price action clearly signals a shift to risk-off sentiment. This week, there are important data releases, including JOLTs job openings on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate on Friday. The market’s interpretation of interest rate cuts hinges on the broader economic context—if job data continues to soften without tipping into recessionary territory, it could support a Goldilocks or soft landing scenario. However, should the data suggest a sharper slowdown, investors may begin to price in a higher probability of a hard landing.


Bottom Line: Our analysis shows that September will hold up until mid-month. While September tends to be one of the worst-performing months of the year, election-year seasonality indicates that the month typically holds up until mid-month and often through September expiration before turning lower. Tomorrow will be important to see if there is follow-through to the downside or if the markets consolidate sideways this week before selling off. This is what we will be watching for. The purple line is an important support level that bulls need to hold.












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