Stock Market Update Tuesday September 17, 2024 Stocks closed relatively flat today after the S&P 500 briefly touched a new all-time high for the first time since July. The benchmark index gained a modest 0.03%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.64% rise.
Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated interest rate decision tomorrow, where Jerome Powell & Co. are widely expected to announce the first rate cut since the pandemic—a move aimed at providing further monetary support amid mixed economic signals. More than 40 S&P 500 constituents hit 52-week or all-time highs, including notable names like Visa, MasterCard, American Express, ServiceNow, PulteGroup, and Lennar. Sector performance was mixed. Energy led the charge, surging over 1%, while Health Care lagged, shedding more than 1%, underscoring the divergent trends within the broader market.
Away From Stocks: Bonds faced mild selling pressure, with the yield on the 2-year Treasury rising 3 basis points to 3.59%, and the 30-year bond yield ticking up to 3.96% from 3.94% on Monday. In commodities, WTI crude climbed past $71 per barrel, signaling continued strength in energy markets. Gold edged lower, settling around $2,570 an ounce, reflecting softer demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin held steady, trading above the $60,000 mark, while volatility remained contained with the VIX inching toward 18, indicating a relatively calm market environment.
PulteGroup, and Lennar closing at all time highs:
Jerome Powell & Co. are anticipated to cut rates tomorrow, despite occurring in a non-recessionary environment, should be seen as a tailwind for equities rather than a headwind. However, it's crucial to stay cautious as this potentially bullish development coincides with historically bearish seasonality next month, followed by the uncertainty of a Presidential Election in the subsequent month. The central bank is expected to kick off its easing cycle, but there remains uncertainty around the size of the first cut. As of this morning, markets have priced in a 61% probability of a 50 basis point reduction, underscoring the delicate balance between market expectations and Fed policy.
Bottom Line:
Monday September 16th 2024 received a buy signal for the IWM ETF, marking a notable development as the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are all now flashing buy alerts. Our cycle analysis indicates two key time pivots this week: September 19th and September 25th, which may lead to increased market volatility or trend reversals. Looking ahead, our year-end outlook remains bullish. We anticipate equity markets will trade higher by the end of December, with the VIX settling in the 10-11 range, reflecting lower implied volatility as markets stabilize.
Opmerkingen