Stock Market Update Tuesday December 31, New Years Eve 2024 The S&P 500 struggled to hold onto its overnight gains, slipping into a 0.5% decline as the trading session neared its close, capping a robust annual performance with a near 24% increase for 2024.
Away From Stocks: Meanwhile, Treasurys also faltered, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.57%, reflecting muted momentum in bond markets. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil pushed higher toward $72 per barrel, signaling resilience amid mixed macroeconomic signals. Gold extended its rally, reaching an impressive $2,625 per ounce, underscoring strong demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin remained a standout performer in digital assets, trading just below the $94,000 mark, sustaining its remarkable year-long ascent. Market volatility, as measured by the VIX, hovered above 17, indicating a persistent undercurrent of investor caution as the year drew to a close.
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Macro News:
January 2, 2025
9:45 AM: Dec Final S&P Manufacturing PMI
Estimate: 48.3
Last: 48.3
January 3, 2025
10:00 AM: Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI
Estimate: 48.2
Last: 48.4
Bottom Line:
On 09/13/2024, the SPY and QQQ ETFs, our proprietary algorithm has triggered a sell alert. Political Stability: Positive sentiment surrounding a pro-business Republican administration has bolstered market outlook. The December FOMC meeting has tempered optimism by reducing the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from four to two, but it still aligns with a soft-landing outlook. Macroeconomic Support: Policies promoting deregulation and lower business costs have kept investor confidence high. In January 2025, we expect a peak that will activate our proprietary algorithm for SPY and QQQ. Our strategy emphasizes waiting for buy alerts instead of shorting indexes, with the goal of having all five indexes—SPY, RSP, QQQ, IWM, and DIA—trigger buy alerts simultaneously.
The Fed's dovish long-term outlook and the absence of a sell alert from our proprietary algorithm for the S&P 500 ETF SPY support this view. Cash on the sidelines continues to accumulate, creating potential for a strong inflow into equities. China's PBOC has introduced significant monetary easing, adding further global stimulus.
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
We believe that this market cycle is not near its end. However, until we see a clear low point in the bond market and a high point for the USD, as well as a buy alert from our proprietary algorithm, it's best for crypto investors who focus on strategy to stay agile. Being flexible will allow them to take advantage of opportunities when a clear trend change is confirmed.
