Stock Market Update Thursday July 24, 2025

Stock Market Update Thursday July 24, 2025 U.S. equities closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managing to notch fresh record highs, even as Tesla (TSLA) weighed on sentiment following a post-earnings decline. Among the “Magnificent Seven”, Alphabet (GOOGL) posted modest gains, helping support tech benchmarks. In contrast, small caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 giving back a portion of Wednesday’s rally. Earnings volatility remained a key theme, with IBM, Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) all experiencing sharp sell-offs following their quarterly results.

Major Index Performance:

• S&P 500 (SPX): +0.1%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +0.3%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): -1.4%

Away From Stocks: In the bond market, U.S. Treasurys saw mild bear-flattening as traders positioned ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The 2-year yield rose 3 basis points to 3.91%, while the 30-year yield ticked higher to 4.96%, up slightly from 4.95% the day prior.

On the commodities front, WTI crude rebounded above $66 per barrel, while gold pulled back to $3,370 per ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin held steady just below $119,000, and the VIX hovered near 15, signaling muted equity volatility expectations.

Q2 2025 Earnings Season Update: 112 S&P 500 Companies Reporting This Week

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As of now, 97 companies—representing approximately 19% of the S&P 500—have released their second-quarter results.

• Earnings Performance:85% of reporting companies have exceeded consensus earnings expectations, delivering a median positive surprise of +4%.Conversely, 15% have reported earnings below estimates, with a median shortfall of -3%.

• Revenue Performance: On the top line, results have been broadly positive:78% of companies have surpassed revenue forecasts, with a median revenue beat of +2%, while those falling short have missed by a median of -2%.

The data thus far indicates a solid start to the Q2 earnings season, with both earnings and revenue surprises trending to the upside.

Quantitative Tightening Progress Report

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet contraction continued at a measured pace last week, with Reserve Bank credit declining by $3 billion, bringing the total stock of interest-bearing assets to $6.612 trillion. This represents a $17 billion reduction over the past month and places the Fed’s portfolio 25.9% below its March 2022 peak, when quantitative tightening (QT) began in earnest. The latest data reflects the ongoing runoff of maturing Treasury and agency securities under the Fed’s QT framework, as policymakers continue to normalize monetary policy and reduce excess liquidity from the financial system.

Bottom Line:

Broad-Based Technical Strength Suggests Bullish Outlook For July With all five major U.S. equity indices currently registering weekly buy signals, the market setup remains structurally bullish. We anticipate any pullbacks to be shallow and met with swift dip-buying activity, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend. The breadth of participation is particularly notable—broad sector rotation and upside momentum are supporting the latest push to all-time highs for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) positioned to potentially confirm new highs in the coming week. This type of broad-based expansion across market cap and sector exposures strengthens the bull case and suggests durable internal support for the rally. Sentiment is gradually shifting, with investors beginning to re-engage and increase risk exposure. While this uptick in optimism reflects growing confidence in the trend, current positioning and sentiment readings are not yet at levels typically associated with euphoria or overbought extremes. As such, we do not yet see the conditions necessary for a market top, but sentiment will remain a key variable to monitor in the sessions ahead.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) signaled a buy alert for the weekly chart on Thursday July 3, 2025 chart; now we have all five major indexes with confirmed buy signals on both a daily and weekly basis. Our next W.D. Gann Cycle Pivot Date will be released later this month. You can find out more in our premium Discord channel. On June 9, 2025, our proprietary algorithm has issued weekly buy signals across four of the five major U.S. equity benchmarks—the S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA). Tuesday, April 29, 2025, we have IWM & RSP ETFs; the two are the most important indexes to give buy signals. Now, we have all five major indexes with buy signals generated from our proprietary algorithm. Monday, April 28, 2025, we had a buy signal generated from our proprietary algorithm for the Dow Jones ETF DIA on the daily chart. The market structure continues to improve, breadth thrusts confirm internal strength, and technical conditions suggest that while short-term upside could be capped, the path of least resistance remains higher. April 25, 2025, Technical Outlook: SPY, QQQ, and DIA have daily buy signals. Sector ETFs (XLK, AIQ, SMH, XLY) have triggered buy signals. April 24, 2025, as do Bitcoin, and VIX has a daily sell signal (bullish for equities).