Stock Market Update Thursday August 14, 2025
- Aug 14, 2025
- 5 min read
Stock Market Update Thursday August 14, 2025 Equities opened lower after a hotter-than-expected PPI print, but clawed back most losses by the close. The early sell-off was moderate, and September rate-cut probabilities were little changed, though Treasury yields pushed higher, tempering some of yesterday’s CPI-driven optimism. In a reversal from the prior session, small caps underperformed sharply on the PPI surprise, while select mega-caps held firm and helped drag the broader market back to flat.
Away From Stocks: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%. Crude oil gained 2%, gold slipped modestly, and the dollar firmed. Volatility ticked up, with the VIX approaching 15.
Macro Update: PPI & Inflation Dynamics
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for this morning showed that goods prices have increased to their highest point since January 2023. This suggests that production costs are rising again. However, yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated that inflation for consumers is still under control. Seven out of eight major CPI categories showed smaller monthly increases compared to June, with only transportation costs increasing at a faster rate.
Historically, there has been a connection between Core PPI and Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures). However, the effect of PPI changes on PCE
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