Stock Market Update Monday August 11, 2025
- Aug 11, 2025
- 5 min read
📈 Stock Market Update – Monday, August 11, 2025 After last week’s push toward the highs, equities took a step back Monday. The mood was cautious — a slow drift lower through most of the day left the major indices closing near their lows. With tomorrow morning’s CPI print in focus, traders weren’t keen to put on fresh risk or test new highs.
On the day:
S&P 500 (SPX): -0.3%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): -0.4%
Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.1%
Away From Stocks: The standout mover was gold, giving back 2.5% after several volatile sessions. Bond markets were quiet, with yields barely budging, and crude oil also traded without much fanfare. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) firmed modestly. Volatility, however, showed a flicker of life. The VIX ticked back above 16 ahead of CPI, while short-dated (0DTE) implied vol saw a sharp uptick from Friday’s post-crush levels — a sign that traders are paying up for near-term protection. Tomorrow’s CPI will set the tone. For now, markets are keeping their powder dry.
Geopolitical Spotlight: Financial markets anticipate instability this week with the upcoming meeting between former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The summit, set for Friday, August 15th in Alaska—chosen to represent the 1867 purchase of Alaska from Russia—is expected to be a major focus of international news. The involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in peace negotiations is unclear, further increasing market uncertainty.
Policy & Market Context: During the month of August, Congress takes a break, which usually means less risk from new laws. But investors are still paying attention to Trump's international activities and how he's choosing people for the Federal Reserve. Bond prices might change if Miran pushes for lower interest rates. Also, how people feel about the stock market could change depending on what happens at the Alaska summit.
📊 Macro Data Tomorrow
Date | Time (ET) | Indicator | Estimate | Prior |
8/12 | 6:00 AM | Jul NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.9 | 98.6 |
8/12 | 8:30 AM | Jul CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% |
8/12 | 8:30 AM | Jul Core CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
8/12 | 8:30 AM | Jul CPI y/y | 2.8% | 2.7% |
8/12 | 8:30 AM | Jul Core CPI y/y | 3.0% | 2.9% |
CPI readings will be closely monitored for signals on inflation trajectory and potential Fed policy adjustments.
Initiated a long position in UNH on July 1st, 2025. Our investment strategy is purely long-only, avoiding short positions, bottom-fishing, or contrarian plays. We await a buy signal from our proprietary algorithm to make further capital allocations or establish new positions.
Federal Reserve Dynamics:
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