Stock Market Update Monday April 7, 2025

Stock Market Update Monday April 7, 2025 Equities whipsawed through extreme volatility today, with closing levels masking the day’s chaotic price action. The S&P 500 traded in an eye-popping 8.5% intraday range—driven largely by tariff-related headlines—before closing down just 0.2%. Year-to-date, the index is now off roughly 14%.

For the session:

• S&P 500 (SPX): -0.2%

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.2%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.9%

Away From stocks: Treasurys sold off sharply, with yields on the 2-year and 30-year rising 5 bps and 17 bps to 3.73% and 4.58%, respectively. The long bond closed at its highest yield of the month. Crude oil (WTI) slid below $61/barrel, gold continued to face pressure at $2,975/oz, and Bitcoin eased to $78,400. Volatility surged, with the VIX spiking to 48—up 26 points in just five sessions.

Dow Jones DIA ETF Daily Chart

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Congress Eyes Massive Budget Bill as GOP Pushes to Cement Trump’s Agenda

The Senate has passed a revised Budget Resolution that sets the stage for a sweeping reconciliation bill aimed at advancing President Trump’s policy goals. Both chambers are still at odds over key details, but they’ve aligned on a major shift: backing a single, comprehensive package instead of breaking legislation into smaller parts—a win for House Republicans and the White House.

At the core of the effort is a push to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent before they expire at year-end. The bill is also expected to increase funding for defense and immigration. But deep divisions remain over how to offset those costs and how to handle the debt ceiling, which looms large.

The House initially proposed a $4 trillion debt ceiling hike, while the Senate and White House are pushing for $5 trillion to avoid another standoff before the 2026 elections. GOP leaders want to keep the issue off the table in an election year that could shift control of Congress.

Spending cuts are another sticking point. The Senate favors targeted reductions, while the House is calling for over $1.5 trillion in cuts. With only 220 seats, House Speaker Mike Johnson has little margin for error, and conservative hardliners are demanding steep cuts in exchange for supporting any debt ceiling increase—something many Senate Republicans oppose. Securing a deal will require tough negotiations on tax policy, fiscal tightening, and debt strategy—all while managing competing priorities within the GOP.

Bottom Line:

Our proprietary trading algorithm has triggered sell signals across all five major U.S. equity benchmarks: SPY, RSP, QQQ, IWM, and DIA ETFs. The corresponding signal dates are detailed below and visualized on the accompanying charts. We view this week's market correction as a transitory pullback, rather than the start of a sustained downturn. Current signals out of Washington suggest that the imposition of new tariffs is more likely a short-term bargaining instrument within ongoing trade negotiations, rather than a definitive shift toward structural protectionism or economic decoupling. This distinction is critical for investors assessing the duration and depth of geopolitical risk pricing into the equity markets. Weekend developments—particularly trade talks and policy announcements from April 5th and April 9th—will likely serve as inflection points for near-term price action. Given the elevated uncertainty and lack of a confirmed buy signal from our model, we strongly advise against initiating new long positions or adding exposure at this time. Once our algorithm generates a buy confirmation, we will look to reallocate capital into existing or new sector-specific positions accordingly.

March 19, 2025 Algorithmic Sell Signals & Market Trends March 3, 2025 – Sell alert triggered for S&P 500 Equal Weight RSP ETF, bringing the total to five major indexes on sell alerts. February 24, 2025 – Sell signal issued for Russell 2000 IWM ETF, confirmed by a prior weekly chart sell alert on February 21. February 24, 2025 – Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) moved to sell condition. W.D. Gann Cycle Pivot Date for the S&P 500 (SPX) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. Historically, these cycle dates often coincide with significant inflection points in price action. While the market will be closed on Saturday, we will be watching for a potential pivot either into Friday’s close or by Monday’s session.