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Stock Market Update Friday March 1st, 2024

Stock Market Update Friday March 1st, 2024 Last Friday, we reached an all-time high, and now, the following Friday, we've achieved yet another all-time high. Green screens pervaded once more as the S&P 500 gained nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed a 1.5% rally to kick off March in appropriate fashion, closing at new all-time highs. Inflation seems to be resurfacing, and the markets will be closely watching the most important macroeconomic data, including the CPI report on March 12, 2024, and next week's NFP report on March 8, 2024. Additionally, we have an FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19-20, 2024 as well as a Quad Witching when all four asset classes expire on March 15, 2024, Another interested date is ides of march (The Ides of March is the day on the Roman calendar that corresponds to March 15. It marks the day in 44BC that Roman leader Julius Caesar was assassinated by a group of Senators he considered allies. Caesar had been warned by a seer that he would come to harm no later than the Ides of March, or March 15) so the month of March will be action-packed.

Away From Stocks: While 2- and 30-year Treasuries settled at 4.54% and 4.33%, respectively, down 10 and 5 basis points on the day, WTI crude tested $80 a barrel to approach four-month highs. Gold jumped 2% to $2,083 per ounce, and the VIX retreated to near 13.

The S&P500 is reaching new highs, but the VIX is not hitting new lows, indicating negative divergence. It's something to be aware of, but remember, negative divergence is merely a condition and not a buy/sell recommendation. There could be 10 different instances of negative divergence, but it only matters when it significantly impacts the market. There's no edge for us to use it as a tradeable alert.

The same goes for extreme greed; if you have been short because of this indicator, it can persist longer than you can stay solvent. So, never trade based solely on this indicator.


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