Stock Market Update Friday July 18, 2025
- Jul 18, 2025
- 4 min read
Stock Market Update Friday July 18, 2025 U.S. equities traded in a narrow range for most of the session, with the S&P 500 effectively "pinned" near the 6300 level—a strike heavily populated with expiring options contracts. This options-related magnet effect kept the index flat on the day, but more importantly, sustained the broader market near record highs into the weekly close. Notably, this resilience came despite renewed tariff-related headlines involving the European Union earlier in the day.
By the close:
S&P 500 (SPX): Unchanged
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): Unchanged
Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.6%
Away From Stocks: In rates, the front end saw a modest bid as two-year Treasury yields retraced yesterday’s slight uptick, while the long bond remained broadly stable, settling at 3.88% and 5.00%, respectively.
Commodities were mixed:
WTI Crude: Held steady at $66 per barrel
Gold: Advanced modestly to $3,350 per ounce
Bitcoin: Dipped below $117,000
VIX: Settled just above 16, reflecting a steady volatility backdrop
In a recent appearance on Bloomberg TV, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller outlined his views on the potential for a reduction in the federal funds rate as early as July. Waller reiterated familiar policy considerations, emphasizing that private sector job creation has largely plateaued, while long-run inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Despite a recent uptick in 10-year breakeven inflation rates to multi-month highs, Waller characterized the move as consistent with historical patterns and not indicative of a regime shift. He stated that a sustained breakout above 2.5% in the 5-year or 10-year breakeven rates would be a more meaningful signal of entrenched inflationary pressures.
University of Michigan's preliminary July report shows a decrease in 1-year inflation expectations to 4.4% year-over-year, down from 5.0% last month. This improvement is mainly due to a drop in inflation expectations among Democrat respondents, from 9.3% to 7.7%.
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