Stock Market Daily Update Wednesday April 9, 2025
- AlgoTradeAlert
- Apr 9
- 4 min read
Stock Market Daily Update Wednesday April 9, 2025 Markets surged following news of a 90-day suspension of new tariffs—announced just half a day after implementation—excluding China for now. Equities responded sharply: the S&P 500 gained 9.5%, the Nasdaq-100 jumped 12%, and the Russell 2000 rose 8.6%, marking one of the strongest single-day rallies in recent memory.
Away From Stocks: While the tariff pause was the immediate catalyst, the bond market’s overnight volatility likely played a role in amplifying the move. Price action in Treasuries resembled stress episodes from past crises, suggesting positioning and liquidity dislocations may have contributed to the equity rally. The 10-year yield ended the day at 4.34%, well below last night’s highs, indicating easing pressure as the session progressed.
Gold and oil both climbed over 4%, reflecting a broad risk-on sentiment and possibly hedging flows in response to geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
Several major Wall Street banks lowered their recession probabilities following the policy shift, reinforcing the view that macro conditions are stabilizing. With CPI due tomorrow and tariffs temporarily sidelined, markets are positioned to react strongly to any upside or downside surprises in inflation data.
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The 90-day pause in monetary tightening has significantly eased financial conditions, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets today. Market breadth was exceptionally strong, with 26 advancers for every decliner—indicating robust, broad-based buying. This rally coincides with the normalization of previously dislocated basis trades, and a temporary tariff suspension has driven swap spreads wider—typically a sign of renewed risk appetite in the credit markets. The TRIN (Arms Index) fell to 0.24, reflecting extreme buying pressure. This level of market participation suggests that the recent period of distribution may have ended, increasing the likelihood that a durable bottom has formed.
Today’s session reinforces the view that the market has established a cyclical low. Volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) reached 238 million shares—well above average—supported by bearish sentiment and technical confirmation from our W.D. Gann time-based pivot model. The next key development will be whether SPY can build a continuation pattern or gap higher in the next trading session. We are now closely monitoring our proprietary models for synchronized buy signals. In particular, confirmation from the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) on the same day would strengthen conviction in the next leg of the rally.
Bottom Line:
We are not attempting to call the bottom or time the market. Long positions will only be initiated upon confirmation from our proprietary buy signal. Over the past two sessions, we've observed capitulatory volume—two consecutive record-breaking down days—culminating in panic selling last Friday. This was followed by a sharp rebound on strong advancing volume yesterday, driving the TRIN down to 0.50, signaling aggressive buying pressure.
Market breadth has hit extreme oversold conditions. Only 2.58% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 20-day moving average—below levels seen during the 2022 lows. Both daily and weekly MACD indicators are in oversold territory, reinforcing the technical case for a potential reversal.
Yesterday’s high-volume intraday reversal and strong close well off the lows suggest seller exhaustion. The bounce is occurring despite negative macro headlines—such as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions—implying that the downside may be largely priced in.
Cyclical indicators point to an imminent short-term bottom. While the duration and strength of any recovery remain uncertain, we anticipate a potential rally into June, contingent on further confirmation that a durable low has formed. For now, we remain in a bottoming process.
The current rebound is occurring despite negative news (e.g., escalating China trade war), implying sellers are exhausted. Our market cycle analysis suggests a short-term bottom is likely near. However, the duration of any subsequent rally is uncertain.
We anticipate a rally into June, but only after clear signs of a confirmed bottom. Overall, we believe this is a bottoming process, not necessarily a definitive bottom yet.
Our proprietary trading algorithm has triggered sell signals across all five major U.S. equity benchmarks: SPY, RSP, QQQ, IWM, and DIA ETFs. The corresponding signal dates are detailed below and visualized on the accompanying charts. We view this week's market correction as a transitory pullback, rather than the start of a sustained downturn. Current signals out of Washington suggest that the imposition of new tariffs is more likely a short-term bargaining instrument within ongoing trade negotiations, rather than a definitive shift toward structural protectionism or economic decoupling. This distinction is critical for investors assessing the duration and depth of geopolitical risk pricing into the equity markets. Weekend developments—particularly trade talks and policy announcements from April 5th and April 9th—will likely serve as inflection points for near-term price action. Given the elevated uncertainty and lack of a confirmed buy signal from our model, we strongly advise against initiating new long positions or adding exposure at this time. Once our algorithm generates a buy confirmation, we will look to reallocate capital into existing or new sector-specific positions accordingly.
March 19, 2025 Algorithmic Sell Signals & Market Trends March 3, 2025 – Sell alert triggered for S&P 500 Equal Weight RSP ETF, bringing the total to five major indexes on sell alerts. February 24, 2025 – Sell signal issued for Russell 2000 IWM ETF, confirmed by a prior weekly chart sell alert on February 21. February 24, 2025 – Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) moved to sell condition. W.D. Gann Cycle Pivot Date for the S&P 500 (SPX) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. Historically, these cycle dates often coincide with significant inflection points in price action. While the market will be closed on Saturday, we will be watching for a potential pivot either into Friday’s close or by Monday’s session.
