Stock Market Update Tuesday April 1, 2025

Stock Market Update Tuesday April 1, 2025 Stocks logged their second consecutive hard-fought advance, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.4%, overcoming multiple intraday reversals around the breakeven line. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 0.8% gain, while the Russell 2000 remained unchanged. (SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.8%, IWM flat)

Away From Stocks: The Treasury market saw a bull-flattening move, as yields on the 2-year and 30-year notes eased by two and seven basis points, respectively, settling at 3.87% and 4.52%. WTI crude held firm above $71 per barrel, while gold stabilized at $3,119 per ounce, consolidating recent gains. Bitcoin inched above $84,000, and the VIX retreated below 22, signaling a modest pullback in market volatility.

Key Events: A Packed Macro Calendar

On Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which will offer crucial insights into the labor market, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech the same day could provide further clarity on monetary policy direction, adding to market sensitivity.

Trade Policy Developments: Tariffs in Focus

The White House has announced an upcoming Rose Garden event to unveil new country-based tariffs, signaling a shift in trade policy targeting specific nations rather than entire industries. In response, Japan and South Korea have coordinated with China to develop a joint strategy to counter U.S. tariffs, aiming to build a more resilient regional supply chain. These geopolitical shifts could have significant implications for global trade flows and corporate earnings outlooks in the coming months. Meanwhile, structural challenges persist in the auto industry, particularly regarding supply chain localization. Experts estimate that relocating just 10% of the auto supply chain to the U.S. would require a staggering three years and hundreds of billions of dollars, underscoring the complexity of reshoring efforts and contributing to investor uncertainty.

Market Recap:

The S&P 500 opened sharply lower on Monday, falling over 1% to set fresh intraday lows, before staging an impressive recovery to close 0.5% higher. This reversal, particularly in the absence of significant positive catalysts, signals underlying market resilience. The session was notably influenced by quarter-end pension fund rebalancing, estimated at up to $40 billion, which contributed to stabilizing equity flows. Additionally, market positioning has turned more neutral, reducing the risk of extreme volatility.

Out performers Since the March 13th Lows

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