Stock Market Update Thursday November 30, 2023 Dow Jones Hits New 2023 Highs: A Robust Month for the Stock Market In a remarkable turn of events from the end of October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new heights for 2023, closing out what has been one of the most successful months for stock market indexes in decades. This achievement brings with it broader implications, not just for investors but for the general public and the economy as a whole.
Dow Jones' Impressive Close setting a monthly record. This significant milestone is likely to be well-received by the public, especially those keeping up with the nightly news. Such positive news can boost consumer confidence and could potentially lead to increased spending on big-ticket items, positively impacting the economy.
Consumer Spending and Government Revenue Increased consumer spending, spurred by growing net worth perceptions, is beneficial not only for the economy but also for government revenues. Higher expenditure leads to more tax dollars, which can be vital for funding various government initiatives.
Economic Indicators: Inflation and Labor Market On the economic front, the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year. The increase in services prices (0.2%) contrasts with a decline in goods prices (0.3%). Furthermore, while initial jobless claims remain low, continuing claims have hit a two-year high, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market.
Movements in Treasurys, Gold, and Crude Oil In the bond market, Treasury yields saw an increase, with the 2-year and 30-year yields settling at 4.73% and 4.54%, respectively. Gold recorded a significant milestone, settling at $2,036, marking its first-ever monthly closing high above $2,000. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices dipped below $76 a barrel, and the VIX index remained below 13, indicating a relatively calm market.
Stock Market Performance and Outlook The S&P 500 experienced a late-day rally, attributed to end-of-day buy programs typically executed by portfolio managers, finishing 0.4% higher and wrapping up the month positively. However, the Nasdaq 100 had a bearish daily close.
Looking ahead, a brief sell-off is anticipated, but first we may see a potential upward spike and then the correction. Our analysis suggests a market bottom due around December 21, 2023. We will provide exclusive guidance to our premium members regarding optimal times to initiate a short position and when to cover the short positions.
Comments