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As Goes The First Week, So Goes The Year

Stock Market Update Tuesday January 2, 2024 As Goes The First Week, So Goes The Year

Bullish seasonality performed well in November and December. Now, it's time for seasonality to provide a rest as the S&P lost about 0.75%, while the Nasdaq fell about 2% through midday. The market attempted a bounce, but it quickly fizzled, resulting in the indices making new lows for the day. However, a late-day buy program rescued the tape, and it closed slightly higher than it had been at mid-session. There was some excitement with Bitcoin that started on Sunday, with prices up more than 4% and the rally continued today.


BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart
BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart

Away from stocks, fixed income was also weaker, which intrigued me as the recent rally seemed overdone. However, with the emergence of more economic weakness, perhaps interest rates can fall further. The DXY U.S. Dollar saw a decent bounce, while the metals were modestly weaker in New York after showing strength overnight. Gold miners were also weaker after not actively participating in the last $50 of the gold rally. We will have to see how that sorts itself out in the coming days. VIX closed south of 13. Oil closed around $7 and is still in a downtrend.


VIX Daily Chart Tuesday January 2, 2024
VIX Daily Chart Tuesday January 2, 2024

Crude Oil Daily Chart
Crude Oil Daily Chart

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