Stock Market Update Monday August 25, 2025
- Aug 25, 2025
- 5 min read
Stock Market Update Monday August 25, 2025 Equities: U.S. stocks opened softer in the wake of Friday’s Jackson Hole melt-up, with early dip-buying attempts quickly fading. The S&P 500 briefly clawed back to flat intraday but failed to sustain momentum, rolling over into the close with a weak final print. Tech showed relative resilience while small caps lagged. SPX -0.4%, QQQ -0.3%, IWM -1.0%.
Away From Stocks: Treasurys were offered, with the curve bear-steepening modestly. The 2-year yield pushed to 3.73%, while the long bond cheapened out to 4.89%. Commodities & FX/Alts: WTI crude extended gains, inching toward $65/bbl. Gold eased back to $3,365/oz, while digital assets remained under pressure with Bitcoin breaking below the $110k handle after weekend weakness. Volatility: The VIX drifted higher, edging back toward the 15 level as equity vols firmed alongside a soft tape.
📅 Key U.S. Economic Data Releases
Tuesday, Aug 26
8:30 AM – July Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: -4.0% est. vs. -9.4% prior
10:00 AM – August Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 96.4 est. vs. 97.2 prior
Thursday, Aug 28
8:30 AM – Q2 GDP (Second Estimate, QoQ): +3.1% est. vs. +3.0% prior
Friday, Aug 29
8:30 AM – July PCE (m/m): +0.2% est. vs. +0.3% prior
8:30 AM – July Core PCE (m/m): +0.3% est. vs. +0.26% prior
8:30 AM – July PCE (y/y): +2.6% est. vs. +2.6% prior
8:30 AM – July Core PCE (y/y): +2.9% est. vs. +2.79% prior
10:00 AM – August Final UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations: n/a est. vs. 4.9 prior
10:00 AM – August Final UMich Consumer Sentiment: 58.6 est. vs. 58.6 prior
We remain constructive on digital assets from a long-term perspective. Our mandate is straightforward: we do not short equity indexes, growth stocks, or Bitcoin. Instead, we maintain dry powder and patiently wait for our proprietary algorithm to generate a buy signal before deploying incremental capital on the long side. The discipline is in the restraint — no chasing, no fading rallies, just systematic accumulation when the setup aligns.
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